Product is being relaunched. This page is the honest snapshot.

Prediction markets give you a price.
We grade it.

Bucephus is the analytics layer on top of prediction markets. Calibrated probabilities across 37 categories, every forecast scored against what actually happened.

Get the investor deck → See the record
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Reads signals from
PolymarketKalshiManifoldGoogle NewsGDELTRedditHacker NewsWikipediaYahoo FinanceCoinGeckoFREDWorld BankOpen-MeteoThe Odds API PolymarketKalshiManifoldGoogle NewsGDELTRedditHacker NewsWikipediaYahoo FinanceCoinGeckoFREDWorld BankOpen-MeteoThe Odds API
01  The problem

A price is not a probability
you can trust.

Polymarket and Kalshi show you where money sits. They don't tell you how often prices like that turn out right, and nobody publishes a public scorecard. Analysts, media teams and trading desks end up building their own models.

I

Noisy prices

Thin markets swing on a single order. The number moves, the truth doesn't.

II

No track record

Nothing tells you whether a 70% price has historically meant 70%.

III

Scattered data

Over 100,000 live markets across dozens of topics, and no single place to compare them.

02  The public record

Scored against reality, not opinion.

Brier score is the standard measure of forecast accuracy, and lower is better. Across 1,788 resolved markets, Bucephus scored 0.076, against 0.136 for simply guessing the base rate.

Straight talk. On this measure Bucephus is level with the market price, not ahead of it. Today the value is calibrated probabilities, broad coverage and a public graded history in one place, and we say so openly.

Brier score · 1,788 resolved markets

Bucephus0.076
Guessing the base rate0.136
00.050.100.15

Lower is better. Bars share one scale from 0 to 0.15.

03  The product

One layer above the exchanges.

i.

Calibrated probabilities

Model-adjusted odds next to the market price, so you can see exactly where they disagree.

ii.

A graded history

Every forecast is stored and scored when its market resolves. The record is built in public.

iii.

Feeds, API and embeds

Built for teams who want probabilities inside their own product. Built, not yet sold. Not an exchange, no real-money wagering.

bucephus / forecastILLUSTRATION
Example market
Will the outcome resolve YES?
Market price62%
Bucephus68%+6 pts vs market
0%Where the two disagree100%
Format illustration, not a live forecast
How a forecast is graded
From forecast to public record
1

Stored

The forecast is saved before the outcome is known.

2

Resolved

The market settles on the real outcome.

3

Scored

The Brier score joins the public history.

Curve illustrates calibration: forecast vs outcome
For builders
Probabilities inside your product
REST APIEmbedsData feeds
GETEmbedFeed
1 2 3 4 5 6GET /forecast/{market} { "price": 0.62, "model": 0.68, "graded": true }
Built, not yet sold. Shape illustration.
04  Traction

Proof from a single World Cup run.

Built by one founder directing AI agents. Live 13 June to 21 July 2026, with no ad spend.

3,432unique visitors on the peak day, 9 July
~314Kpage views while live
187registered users
$0spent on ads. All organic.

Every figure comes from our own analytics.

05  Let's talk

See the numbers behind the record.

The investor deck covers traction, the graded record and the plan in full.

Get the investor deck →Talk to the founder
AK

Amit Kumar

Solo founder, full-time on Bucephus. Built the product, the forecasting pipeline and the public record. [email protected] · @BucephusHQ